Retail return "rollercoaster" for flooring

THE STOCKLISTS SURVEY • June 26, 2020
Floor retailing is on a rollercoaster for the next six months according to a survey of readers that found strong belief in pent-up demand alongside an expectation that that the year’s sales figures would be devastated by the lockdown.

69% of readers of The Stocklist believe there is pent-up demand among consumers but a third said their sales for the year would be down more than 20%, another third said more than 30% and a worryingly large 15% expect their turnover to be halved!

Only 27% expected their monthly sales figures to return to pre-lockdown levels this year – 39% expect that recovery in the first half of 2021 and 31% not until the second half of 2021.

“For those that can ride out this storm, they will be in a strong position for the future,” said a Sussex retailer. “I think it will bounce back, but
not very quickly,” said a Dorset store owner. “Carpet is luckily a touchy, feely purchase and so I feel customers will always want to come to a shop and purchase.”

There’s an anecdotal expectation that the pent-up demand may be extinguished quickly, last just a month or two but most retailers still expect Q4 to be stronger than Q3, as would be the case in a normal year.
“People will still need flooring – we may even benefit from them spending more time indoors,” said a reader in the North East. “I’m confident things will be fine.”

Asked what was the greatest threat to consumer confidence this year, maybe surprisingly, only 18% directly cited coronavirus. The great majority (77%) said a recession and its attendant unemployment was by far the greater threat. Only 5% are worrying about a no-deal Brexit.
“Now, more than ever, we should be supporting our UK flooring manufacturers. They will be the ones who will reliably provide consistent quality goods at more stable prices,” said a retailer in Warwickshire.
“I feel there is a great consumer desire for British goods which has only strengthened during lockdown. We shouldn’t be afraid to be proud of our quality products and services going forward, and make a reasonable profit for a change.”

Retailers also expressed concern that suppliers might not be ready for the return to trading. 74% said they expected supply or stock issues in the next few weeks.

Only 19% of our respondents had made redundancies or permanently cut hours (as opposed to furlough). Overall, the retail trade thinks the Government  has worked well in managing the crisis. 68% said the financial support package had been effective and more than half felt Government communication had been generally good (though 40%
said it was confusing).

Among our readers, most retailers re-opened on June 1 when it became clear the “homewares’ exclusion to the lock down could be applied to flooring stores. Of the rest, about a quarter opened before June and another quarter were waiting until the official June 15 deadline for
non-essential retail re-opening.

Asked whether the Government’s easing of the lockdown for retail
was well-timed, 55% believed it was about right, 35% too soon and
10% too late.

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